Tornado diagrams are a classic tool of sensitivity analysis to provide decision makers a quick overview of the risks involved. A tornado chart to show a financial analysis for a project may look like this:
In this particular case, we are assuming that the tornado shows the NPV of a project. We expect the project can be valued at $7 billion (the point where the vertical axis crosses), subject to uncertainties.
The tornado helps visualize these uncertainties. In the example, Conversion (i.e. how many of the people that shop for our product become a customer) is the largest uncertainty. We believe 35% of the shoppers would convert. If only 25% convert, the project’s NPV would drop to $4 billion, from the base case, $7 billion. On the other hand, if 45% convert, we have a large upside and the NPV would be $12 billion.
Next in relevance would be pricing, $25,500 in the base case. If it goes down to $20,500 the NPV would reduce to $5 billion. If we can raise price up to $29,500 due to a favorable competitive environment, then the upside is $4 billion from the base case.
By now, you can follow the logic of the chart, with the other variables. Do you still have questions? Go ahead and drop us a line. We are happy to help.
Tornado diagrams are not used as frequently as one would expect, given how clearly they help showing the impact of different variables on a geven outcome. As suggested by Ted Eschenbach on a recent article of Engineering Economist, (issue of 06/22/2006), perhaps this is due to difficulties in constructing them.
Sensitivity analysis is needed to address the inherent uncertainty in engineering economy applications because (1) time horizons are measured in years or decades and (2) much economic analysis is done at the feasibility and preliminary design stages. This is often shown using relative sensitivity analysis charts or spiderplots, which have a long and rich history in practice and texts (they are described in 10 of 18 texts reviewed, including Blank and Tarquin (2002), Canada et al. (1996), Eschenbach (2003), Lang and Merino (1993), Park (2002, 2004), Sullivan et al. (2003), Thuesen and Fabrycky (2001), White et al. (1998), Young (1993). Tornado diagrams are not new, but they have not been used nearly as frequently. Only one of the 18 texts included a tornado diagram (Eschenbach, 2003)–
Searching Google on how to make tornado charts, you’ll get many results, most of them requiring you to download an add-in. Keep reading to see how you can create tornado charts with plain Excel in just 5 steps… very easy and straightforward!!