Thanks for your message. In my opinion, modeling is more about the conversations that are generated when you model something than it is about the math of the model itself. Every model is a simplification of reality and will be, by definition, “wrong” or insufficient if you look at it from certain perspective. But we simply can’t escape models! When we as humans understand something, it is simply that we created a mental model about that something. Therefore, the value of strategic modeling is to have conversations that elicit each of the participant’s mental model about the problem, that make explicit some of the assumptions behind those mental models, and allow the group to have alignment conversations so it becomes a shared mental model. Once that is achieved, it doesn’t matter if the implementation of the models are scribbles on a blackboard, a Excel spreadsheet or a complex computer program. You won’t get far if the involved parties don’t trust and understand whatever model is used. What you and other readers think?

I have this question that has been bugging my mind for a while now. I’ve read about the pros and cons of strategic modelling. but do you think strategic modelling can make a contribution to management decision making?

Thank you!

I have found your blog posts re s-curves very informative.

I’m studying technological growth curves at present as part of some postgrad research at university and am interested in the application of such a model in industry.

I have read many of the papers in the Journal of Forecasting etc, and much of it seems quite esoteric and I don’t find it quoted that often by non-academics. Does the Bass model have a place in real world modeling of sales data?

Are there other models which perhaps I should consider too, which account for the marketing mix variables more directly?

BR,