Comments on: Logistic model for the s-curve and project management cost estimation http://8020world.com/jcmendez/2008/12/business/logistic-model-for-the-s-curve-and-project-management-cost-estimation/ My thoughts on business, technology and everything else Tue, 16 Mar 2010 00:46:03 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: jcmendez http://8020world.com/jcmendez/2008/12/business/logistic-model-for-the-s-curve-and-project-management-cost-estimation/comment-page-1/#comment-1588 jcmendez Fri, 03 Jul 2009 15:37:36 +0000 http://8020world.com/jcmendez/2008/12/uncategorized/logistic-model-for-the-s-curve-and-project-management-cost-estimation/#comment-1588 Hola Daniel - thanks for your comment. This post where you are commenting is somewhat an off-topic focused on project management and cost estimation. However, if you look at a previous post at <a href="http://8020world.com/jcmendez/2007/04/business/modeling-market-adoption-in-excel-with-a-simplified-s-curve/" target="_blank">http://8020world.com/jcmendez/2007/04/business/mo...</a> you will see I use the s-curve for new technology adoption modeling, exactly as you ask. That post identifies the parameters, and the response to comment <a href="http://8020world.com/jcmendez/2007/04/business/modeling-market-adoption-in-excel-with-a-simplified-s-curve/#IDComment23202886" target="_blank">http://8020world.com/jcmendez/2007/04/business/mo...</a> deals with the issue of parameter fitting (deriving the curve parameters from "real world" data). Hope it helps you, and drop me a line if it doesn't Hola Daniel – thanks for your comment.

This post where you are commenting is somewhat an off-topic focused on project management and cost estimation. However, if you look at a previous post at http://8020world.com/jcmendez/2007/04/business/mo... you will see I use the s-curve for new technology adoption modeling, exactly as you ask. That post identifies the parameters, and the response to comment http://8020world.com/jcmendez/2007/04/business/mo... deals with the issue of parameter fitting (deriving the curve parameters from "real world" data). Hope it helps you, and drop me a line if it doesn't

]]> By: Daniel Collico Savio http://8020world.com/jcmendez/2008/12/business/logistic-model-for-the-s-curve-and-project-management-cost-estimation/comment-page-1/#comment-1587 Daniel Collico Savio Fri, 03 Jul 2009 14:09:25 +0000 http://8020world.com/jcmendez/2008/12/uncategorized/logistic-model-for-the-s-curve-and-project-management-cost-estimation/#comment-1587 I´m using this S-curve for a new purpose which is assessing the impact of a new technology (i.e. implementing a revenue assurance technique, and anticipate results). In this sense I think it would be worth to identifiy each of the four parameters involved here with a given effect (i.e., Saturation has to do with a sort of Amplitude or max output of the process, etc). In other words, once you modelize you try to link parameters with some "real world" behaviours. Any comment on that? Thank you for sharing your experience, Daniel I´m using this S-curve for a new purpose which is assessing the impact of a new technology (i.e. implementing a revenue assurance technique, and anticipate results).

In this sense I think it would be worth to identifiy each of the four parameters involved here with a given effect (i.e., Saturation has to do with a sort of Amplitude or max output of the process, etc).

In other words, once you modelize you try to link parameters with some "real world" behaviours. Any comment on that?
Thank you for sharing your experience,
Daniel

]]> By: Juan Carlos Méndez-García http://8020world.com/jcmendez/2008/12/business/logistic-model-for-the-s-curve-and-project-management-cost-estimation/comment-page-1/#comment-408 Juan Carlos Méndez-García Wed, 24 Dec 2008 11:43:19 +0000 http://8020world.com/jcmendez/2008/12/uncategorized/logistic-model-for-the-s-curve-and-project-management-cost-estimation/#comment-408 @ Mina Check out http://8020world.com/jcmendez/2007/04/business/modeling-market-adoption-in-excel-with-a-simplified-s-curve/ for the meaning of the 3 parameters. The values you see above 1.4 for saturation, 3.1 for hypergrowth, etc. were the result of curve fitting (step 1 described) your data to the curve model. The way you do it in Excel is using Solver, as described on the entry. The s-curve arises, as described, from the *cumulative* spending of a bell-like monthly spending curve. @ Mina

Check out http://8020world.com/jcmendez/2007/04/business/modeling-market-adoption-in-excel-with-a-simplified-s-curve/ for the meaning of the 3 parameters. The values you see above 1.4 for saturation, 3.1 for hypergrowth, etc. were the result of curve fitting (step 1 described) your data to the curve model. The way you do it in Excel is using Solver, as described on the entry. The s-curve arises, as described, from the *cumulative* spending of a bell-like monthly spending curve.

]]> By: Mina http://8020world.com/jcmendez/2008/12/business/logistic-model-for-the-s-curve-and-project-management-cost-estimation/comment-page-1/#comment-405 Mina Mon, 22 Dec 2008 19:48:29 +0000 http://8020world.com/jcmendez/2008/12/uncategorized/logistic-model-for-the-s-curve-and-project-management-cost-estimation/#comment-405 Hello, The cost spent each month does not always follow an s curve but a belle curve as you can see from the percentages that I sent before. Their variation looks just like two separate bellecurves when using a scatter diagram. So, the question is how to spread those bellecurve over 48 months by keeping the two bellecurves. Thanks. Hello,
The cost spent each month does not always follow an s curve but a belle curve as you can see from the percentages that I sent before. Their variation looks just like two separate bellecurves when using a scatter diagram. So, the question is how to spread those bellecurve over 48 months by keeping the two bellecurves. Thanks.

]]> By: Mina http://8020world.com/jcmendez/2008/12/business/logistic-model-for-the-s-curve-and-project-management-cost-estimation/comment-page-1/#comment-404 Mina Mon, 22 Dec 2008 18:37:23 +0000 http://8020world.com/jcmendez/2008/12/uncategorized/logistic-model-for-the-s-curve-and-project-management-cost-estimation/#comment-404 Hi, I think what you gave me was excellent. I just need to know how did you get the following numbers :saturation, hypergrowth, takeover, and sharpness. I have other projects that have different numbers and if I don't understand how to get those numbers I won't be able to use you model. Also, I never used this model before, do you have any document that describe its use. Thanks and Feliz Navitad. Hi,
I think what you gave me was excellent. I just need to know how did you get the following numbers :saturation, hypergrowth, takeover, and sharpness. I have other projects that have different numbers and if I don’t understand how to get those numbers I won’t be able to use you model. Also, I never used this model before, do you have any document that describe its use. Thanks and Feliz Navitad.

]]> By: Juan Carlos Méndez-García http://8020world.com/jcmendez/2008/12/business/logistic-model-for-the-s-curve-and-project-management-cost-estimation/comment-page-1/#comment-400 Juan Carlos Méndez-García Sun, 21 Dec 2008 15:53:03 +0000 http://8020world.com/jcmendez/2008/12/uncategorized/logistic-model-for-the-s-curve-and-project-management-cost-estimation/#comment-400 Sure, the Excel file is at http://8020world.com/jcmendez/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/question_mina.xls - Please see the legal disclaimer before using it Sure, the Excel file is at http://8020world.com/jcmendez/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/question_mina.xls – Please see the legal disclaimer before using it

]]> By: Mina http://8020world.com/jcmendez/2008/12/business/logistic-model-for-the-s-curve-and-project-management-cost-estimation/comment-page-1/#comment-399 Mina Sun, 21 Dec 2008 15:27:31 +0000 http://8020world.com/jcmendez/2008/12/uncategorized/logistic-model-for-the-s-curve-and-project-management-cost-estimation/#comment-399 Can you please attach an excel file. I need to see the details and how you used formulas. Thanks. Can you please attach an excel file. I need to see the details and how you used formulas. Thanks.

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